Alcaraz vs. Djokovic
Wimbledon 2023
It was set to be a clash of titans: a 20-yearold World #1 against World #2 and GOAT, Novak Djokovic, now 37. They had played twice before. The first time in Madrid in 2022. Alcaraz won 6-7, 7-5, 7-6. The second time was this year in the semifinals of Roland Garros. Djokovic won 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1. The last two sets of this match were outliers, as Alcaraz was suffering from severe cramps and was not himself. At a basic level, the two prior matches had one thing in common: Djokovic wins the first set and Alcaraz the second. Would Wimbledon repeat this score line?
The answer is yes. But, beneath the surface, there is an even more resounding YES. Here’s what I mean. Yes, the players split the first two sets in exactly the same pattern, but something more interesting ended up happening: the two matches which were played without injury were virtually identical even though the surface had changed. Check the following chart which shows the number of points won (M Madrid; W Wimbledon):
|
M Total |
W Total |
M 0-4 |
W 0-4 |
M 5-8 |
W 5-8 |
M 9+ |
W 9+ |
|
|
Alcaraz |
135 |
168 |
92 |
104 |
28 |
38 |
15 |
26 |
|
Djokovic |
131 |
166 |
93 |
105 |
25 |
38 |
13 |
23 |
|
DOMINANCE |
||||||||
|
Madrid |
Wimbledon |
Diff |
||||||
|
Alcaraz fh |
30.45% |
22.46% |
-7.99% |
|||||
|
Djokovic fh |
13.16% |
17.07% |
3.91% |
|||||
|
Alcaraz bh |
13.91% |
12.57% |
-1.34% |
|||||
|
Djokovic bh |
12.41% |
13.47% |
1.06% |
|||||
|
Alcaraz S |
10.53% |
11.68% |
1.15% |
|||||
|
Djokovic S |
10.90% |
8.98% |
-1.92% |
|||||
|
Alcaraz OhV |
5.26% |
7.19% |
1.93% |
|||||
|
Djokovic OhV |
3.38% |
6.59% |
3.21% |
|||||
|
Alcaraz total |
60.15% |
53.90% |
-6.25% |
|||||
|
Djokovic total |
39.85% |
46.11% |
6.26% |
Total points won and lost: virtually identical. As were the points won/lost in each of the three rally length categories (0-4, 5-8, 9+). There was clearly no rally length advantage in any category for either player. They were essentially completely even in this often-revealing breakdown of what was happening.
However, there was a difference in the way the players played the two matches. We would expect this because of the difference in surfaces: red clay vs. grass. This difference is highlighted by looking at the DOMINANCE statistics. Remember, DOMINANCE is the percentage of point-ending shots made by a particular stroke. This may either be a winner or an error. It is a proxy for dictating the match.
Overall, Alcaraz was considerably less dominant when comparing Wimbledon with Madrid. This showed itself particularly with his forehand, although there was a small change in the backhand as well. Djokovic was considerably more aggressive with his forehand and a bit more aggressive with his backhand. These changes with the levels of ground stroke aggression were also there in the first two sets of the Roland Garros semifinal.
It is no surprise that both players were finishing more points at the net at Wimbledon. Obviously, a faster surface allows for more net play. What was surprising was the marginally lower effectiveness of Djokovic’s serve. We would have expected a slight uptick on the faster court. Novak did have only two aces in the match and our finding suggests that he revisit his serving tactics for a faster surface.
What an entertaining and well-played final! There was literally almost nothing to separate the players!
